Brazil presidential election heads to runoff between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazil’s presidential election will go to a second round between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro after neither candidate secured the majority required for an outright victory. The electoral court confirmed on Sunday that the runoff would take place on October 25. With almost all votes counted, Bolsonaro had about 47% of valid votes, compared with 44.9% for Lula.

The first-round result differed from most polls, which had generally expected Lula to finish ahead even if a runoff was required. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The result leaves voters who supported the other 10 first-round candidates central to the next stage of the campaign. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together received about 5.3 million votes, have previously said they will not endorse either finalist. Political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters that Bolsonaro may have benefited from protest votes from people who wanted to defeat Lula.

He said that support could help Bolsonaro in the first round but might limit his potential to grow during the runoff because some of those votes had already been cast. Lula said the result was unexpected but vowed to return stronger. Bolsonaro said it showed Brazilians wanted change.

The election also produced strong results for right-wing parties in Congress. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party was on track to become the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies and make gains in the Senate. Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro, members of the former president’s family, also won Senate seats.

A stronger conservative presence could make it harder for Lula to advance legislation if he wins. A Bolsonaro victory could give Flavio Bolsonaro greater scope to pursue priorities including an amnesty for his father.