El Niño projections warn of 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide
A Climate Impact Lab projection estimates that the current El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February. Developing countries are expected to bear the heaviest burden, with projected increases across Africa, Asia and Latin America.
The current El Niño weather pattern could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February, according to projections from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago. The phenomenon, declared in June and expected to peak later this year, is projected to intensify global temperatures. Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could average 1.2C above normal in the coming months, producing 44 per cent more extremely hot days than in a regular year.
Developing countries are expected to face the greatest impact. The projections include 66,800 additional heat deaths in the Sahel, with nearly half of that figure in Nigeria. They also estimate 19,300 in Indonesia, 19,400 across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
The researchers compared temperature-related mortality across 24,378 regions with long-range forecasts and the 1996–2025 average. Their method is due to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said the estimates could help governments and humanitarian organisations target emergency measures.
Suggested responses include heat warnings, cooling centres and hydration stations. The report followed a United Nations warning that El Niño poses a significant threat to global health.
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