India’s ageing shift will intensify as fertility falls, Moody’s says

India is likely to have a much older population later this century as fertility falls below replacement level and the country’s age structure begins to shift, Moody’s Ratings said on Tuesday. In a report on global demographics, the ratings agency said population growth had long supported economic growth and creditworthiness. Falling fertility, however, would eventually reduce the number of workers and households, limiting productive capacity and weakening consumer demand.

Moody’s said economies facing these changes would need to rely more heavily on productivity to sustain growth. It added that the trend was significant because many of the world’s largest economies were ageing at the same time. The global fertility rate has declined from 4.9 children per woman in 1950 to about 2.2 today, according to the report.

That is only slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1. More than 70% of the world’s population now lives in countries where fertility is at or below replacement level, Moody’s said. Japan has the most top-heavy population structure, with almost 30% of its population aged over 65 and about 11% under 15.

South Korea is close behind, while China is also moving rapidly towards an older population. The agency said emerging economies including Brazil, India, Thailand and Türkiye were following the same broad path. Latin American fertility rates have become comparable with those in Europe and Japan, while several East Asian countries have recorded some of the lowest rates ever reported.

“Although India’s population remains relatively young, fertility has already fallen below replacement and the country’s age structure is beginning to shift,” Moody’s said. It said this was setting the stage for a much older population later in the century. Declining fertility changes both the size of populations and their age composition, the agency said.

Countries currently experiencing the sharpest falls are expected to age most rapidly in coming decades. The report did not provide a specific forecast for India’s future elderly population or identify a date for when the shift would become most pronounced.