New index examines how state authority weakens across contested zones
A Premium Times analysis introduces the Decoupling Sovereignty Index, a framework for examining the gap between a state’s formal authority and people’s lived experience. It compares Port-au-Prince, Colombia’s Catatumbo and Nigeria’s Zamfara as distinct examples of contested, fragmented and negotiated authority.
The Decoupling Sovereignty Index is designed to measure the gap between a state’s formal authority and its practical reach in people’s daily lives, according to an analysis by Max Amuchie published by Premium Times. The framework builds on the author’s Trinity of Sovereignty Decay theory and begins with the zone rather than the country as its main unit of observation. The analysis argues that sovereignty may be experienced differently across a state’s territory even when the country remains formally recognised and its institutions continue to operate.
It describes the central concern as the gradual institutional invisibility of people who remain alive, resident within national borders and legally recognised, but may no longer reliably receive protection, services or representation from the state. The analysis compares the Port-au-Prince metropolitan zone in Haiti, Catatumbo in Colombia and Zamfara in Nigeria. It stresses that these areas are not identical crises or a ranking of failed states, but examples of different forms of decoupling.
In Port-au-Prince, armed groups are described as having the ability in some areas to influence movement, trade, work and access to essential services. Their control of roads or neighbourhoods can place them between the formal state and residents, the analysis says. Catatumbo is presented as a case of competing authority.
The state retains legal sovereignty, while armed organisations, illicit economic networks and community protection mechanisms may influence movement, livelihoods and security. The article links the escalation of violence in early 2025 to displacement and humanitarian consequences. Zamfara is described as a negotiated space.
State institutions and security agencies remain formally present, but persistent bandit violence and displacement may lead communities to seek local arrangements for survival. The analysis says such arrangements raise questions about why residents feel compelled to seek security outside formal state structures. The article cautions that community support, informal markets and armed territorial control should not automatically be treated as the same phenomenon.
It presents the index as a tool for examining where and how sovereignty is experienced.
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