Sahel militant violence on course for record, conflict monitor says

Violence involving jihadist groups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger is set to reach historic levels, according to figures from Acled. The monitor recorded 2,145 such events this year so far, while analysts said the groups’ expanding territorial influence has not translated into a demonstrated capacity for attacks in Europe or the United States.

Violence involving Islamist militant groups in Africa’s Sahel region is on course to reach record levels this year, according to figures compiled by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, or Acled. The data focus on Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, a central and heavily contested part of the Sahel.

Acled recorded 63 incidents involving jihadist groups in the three countries in 2016, compared with 2,845 in 2025. It has logged 2,145 events so far this year and said the total could exceed 3,000 if current trends persist. The figures indicate a sharp regional increase even as terrorism deaths worldwide have fallen to their lowest level since 2008.

The Global Peace Index’s 2026 report said the United Nations recorded more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 2025. The supplied material did not specify how many of those deaths were caused by jihadist groups.

In Mali, the al-Qaida-linked Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, known as JNIM, and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front carried out an April offensive involving ambushes, car bombs, drones and raids. The attacks targeted strategic towns, government forces and Russian auxiliaries. The report said Mali’s defence minister and military intelligence chief were killed, while militants also attacked the international airport and regained Kidal after soldiers fled and Russian mercenaries surrendered.

JNIM has continued expanding its areas of control in Mali and has claimed more than 130 attacks in Burkina Faso this year, including operations closer to the capital, Ouagadougou. In Niger, it claimed at least 17 attacks but was less active than Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, according to a United Nations report cited in the source.

Analysts said the Sahel-based groups are focused largely on local struggles rather than attacks in the West. “Not a single attack in Europe or the US has been planned in the Sahel,” said Ulf Laessing of the Konrad Adenauer foundation. Acled analyst Peter Bofin separately said al-Shabaab-related violence in east Africa had caused more than 10,000 reported deaths over the previous 18 months. The source also described militant activity linked to Islamic State in several other African countries.