The state pension is likely to rise by 3.9% next April, according to the latest jobs and pay data reported by the BBC.
The final increase has not yet been settled. It will be based on either the latest average wage growth figure or the inflation figure due next month, depending on which produces the higher payment under the pension guarantee.
The triple lock means state pensions rise by whichever is highest among average wage growth, inflation or 2.5%. The policy is designed to set a minimum annual increase while linking payments to movements in earnings and prices.
The Office for National Statistics said average wage growth between May and July had slowed. Despite that slowdown, the latest figures point to a 3.9% increase, according to the BBC’s report.
The relevant wage and inflation measures are considered at different points in the year, so the eventual rate depends on the figures used for the guarantee. The inflation figure expected next month could therefore affect the final outcome if it is higher than the wage-growth measure.
A 3.9% rise would apply from next April, although the supplied report does not give the current pension rate or calculate what the increase would mean in cash terms. The BBC identifies the expected increase as a forecast based on the latest available economic data, rather than a confirmed final rate.