Think Tank Projects Higher US Household Energy Costs Under Trump Policies
Energy Innovation estimates that households in the contiguous United States will pay an average of $6,500 more for energy through 2040 because of federal policy changes under President Donald Trump. The administration disputes the analysis, saying its fossil-fuel approach will improve reliability and lower costs.
Households in the contiguous United States could pay an average of $6,500 more for energy through 2040 as a result of federal policy changes made since President Donald Trump returned to office, according to modelling by Energy Innovation. The California-based think tank said the policies would increase demand for natural gas in electricity generation and gasoline in transport. It attributed the projected changes to the cancellation of new wind, solar and hydrogen projects and the reversal of policies that encouraged efficient and lower-emission vehicles.
Energy Innovation said costs would rise in every state in the contiguous United States. Households in Oregon, Mississippi, South Dakota, Virginia and Wyoming were projected to pay roughly $9,000 more over the period. Alaska and Hawaii were excluded because key federal data was unavailable.
The analysis also projected job losses in 47 of 48 states and a reduction in gross domestic product in 46 states. It estimated 37,000 additional premature deaths from air pollution, $72 billion in additional healthcare costs and more than nine billion tonnes of additional carbon pollution from environmental rollbacks. Robbie Orvis, the group’s senior director for modelling and analysis, said the outlook had worsened across most states and that the affordability crisis could deepen.
The think tank said its data drew substantially on government sources, including the Energy Information Administration. The White House rejected the assessment. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said lower electricity prices remained a priority and argued that Trump was expanding reliable coal and natural gas generation.
She accused the analysis of being partisan and said clean-energy projects were costly and unreliable. The conservative Institute for Energy Research similarly argued that high electricity prices were not inevitable, pointing to renewable mandates, coal and nuclear retirements and restrictions on natural-gas infrastructure in some states. The Energy Information Administration expects residential US customers to pay about 18.6 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2027, compared with 17.3 cents in 2025 and 18.2 cents in 2026.
The source also cited Rhodium Group concerns about gas-price volatility, grid upgrades, inflation and storm and wildfire costs.
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