A study from the US-based Defense Priorities Foundation has proposed a major reduction in the country’s military commitments in the western Pacific, prompting concern among analysts about the future of American alliances in the Indo-Pacific. The report was written by Jennifer Kavanagh, the foundation’s director of military analysis.
Kavanagh argues that Washington should end mutual defense alliances with South Korea, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, and focus primarily on defending the US homeland while protecting access to important markets and trade routes. She proposes moving US forces away from the “first island chain,” stretching from southern Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, and repositioning them along a more distant “second island chain.”
The report says such a move would make US positions easier to defend and reduce the danger of a catastrophic conflict with China. Kavanagh also advocates a clear US policy of non-intervention in any military confrontation over Taiwan, noting that Washington has no formal commitment to defend the island. She argues that the potential costs of war would outweigh the benefits for the United States.
The countries named in the proposal have not formally responded, according to DW. William Yang, a Taiwan-based security analyst with the International Crisis Group, said the recommendations would be viewed with shock and described them as highly accommodating to China. He said the proposals reflect concerns about the durability of US security commitments, although there is no indication that the White House is preparing to adopt them.
Other analysts cited by DW disputed the report’s assumptions. Garren Mulloy of Daito Bunka University said a US withdrawal would leave a strategic gap that China and, to a lesser extent, Russia could fill, while reducing Washington’s influence over regional rules and institutions. Dan Pinkston of Troy University’s Seoul campus called the plan flawed and unrealistic, warning that the United States could lose influence over issues including maritime security, sanctions enforcement, cybercrime, smuggling, fisheries and cross-border financial crime.
The report plays down predictions that a US pullback would lead to rapid Chinese action against Taiwan or increased North Korean pressure on South Korea. Critics cited by DW instead foresee weaker deterrence, higher regional defense spending and possible damage to nuclear non-proliferation efforts.