Tropical Storm Isaias threatens US Gulf Coast as first Atlantic hurricane of 2026

Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to strengthen into the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 before reaching the US Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. The National Hurricane Center’s early projections place the potential landfall between eastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle, although the exact location remains uncertain. ABC News reported that Isaias formed early Wednesday in warm waters off eastern Mexico.

At that point it was about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and 580 miles south-west of the mouth of the Mississippi River, with maximum sustained winds of 40mph and movement to the east-north-east at 8mph. The BBC said forecasts suggested the storm could reach hurricane strength by Thursday morning and possibly Category 2 intensity by Friday morning. The hurricane centre has issued watches for hurricanes and storm surge along parts of the Gulf Coast, while forecasters have warned residents to follow updates and prepare emergency plans.

The principal threats are strong winds, torrential rain, coastal flooding and storm surge. Between 3in and 6in of rain could fall from south-east Louisiana to north-west Florida, with isolated totals of up to 10in possible. The BBC said flash flooding could be particularly likely in urban areas, with some river flooding also possible.

Mexico is expected to receive the first impacts as the system moves over or near the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatán Peninsula. Rainfall of about 4in and strong winds are possible there. As Isaias travels inland after landfall, it should weaken, but wet weather could spread across much of the south-eastern United States, including the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency in 25 counties, including areas in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. ABC News said the declaration activates the state’s emergency management plan and allows personnel and equipment to be deployed in preparation for hurricanes and other natural disasters. The storm is developing during an unusually quiet Atlantic season.

Isaias is the ninth named tropical storm of the season but would be the first to become a hurricane. The BBC attributed the reduced activity to a strengthening El Niño, which increases wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic and can disrupt developing storms. Isaias has formed in an area with limited wind shear and sea temperatures of about 30C to 31C, providing energy for intensification.

Forecasters expect stronger wind shear farther north to limit the storm to some extent, but both reports stress that the track and strength forecast may change. Residents along the northern Gulf Coast are being urged to monitor official updates closely.