US and China find limited room for stability despite deep disputes
An analysis published by the South China Morning Post says Washington and Beijing continue to use tariffs, export controls and blacklists, but repeatedly pull back from a complete rupture. It argues that economic costs and mutual dependence, especially over critical minerals, are encouraging selective cooperation rather than friendship.
The United States and China continue to compete through tariffs, export controls and blacklists, but repeated retreats from escalation suggest both sides still see value in managing their relationship, according to an analysis in the South China Morning Post. The article says Washington and Beijing have repeatedly moved back from the brink after high-level meetings. It points to agreements and easing measures following meetings in Osaka in 2019 and Busan last October as examples of this pattern.
The economic cost of separation is one reason for restraint. Two-way goods and services trade fell 25.1 per cent last year to an estimated $494.6 billion, while US goods exports to China declined by 26 per cent, the analysis says. Tariffs on many Chinese goods remain close to 30 per cent.
China’s position in critical minerals also limits Washington’s room for manoeuvre. The article says China controls about 70 per cent of global rare-earth mining and roughly 90 per cent of processing capacity, making rapid replacement of that supply difficult. The relationship remains contentious.
The analysis lists US concerns about Chinese subsidies, forced technology transfer, opaque ownership and procurement rules. Beijing, meanwhile, continues to use export restrictions and other economic measures, while selectively opening areas including advanced manufacturing, research and medical technology. Both countries have also imposed restrictions on companies and entities linked to security concerns.
The article says Washington added Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to a civil-military list in June, while China placed 10 US entities on a dual-use export-control list. It notes that countermeasures remained limited. Taiwan is described as the most sensitive flashpoint, amid military activity by China and exercises by the US and its allies.
Still, the analysis says renewed dialogue between military commanders and the possibility of resumed arms-control talks offer signs of rebuilding communication. It concludes that the countries are neither friends nor outright enemies, but nuclear powers with strong reasons to avoid open conflict.
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