A study from the US-based Defense Priorities Foundation has proposed a major reduction in the United States’ military commitments in the western Pacific, prompting concern among analysts about the future of American alliances in the Indo-Pacific.
The report, written by Jennifer Kavanagh, the foundation’s director of military analysis, calls for Washington to end mutual defense alliances with South Korea, Japan, Australia and the Philippines. It says the United States should prioritize protecting its homeland and maintaining access to important markets and trade routes.
Kavanagh recommends moving US forces away from the “first island chain,” which extends from Okinawa through Taiwan to the Philippines, and positioning them farther back along what the report calls the “second island chain.” The study argues that this would make American forces easier to defend and reduce the risk of a catastrophic conflict with China.
The proposal would have particular implications for Taiwan. Kavanagh notes that Washington has no formal commitment to defend the island and argues that the United States should replace its policy of strategic ambiguity with a clear pledge not to intervene in a military confrontation between Taiwan and China.
The governments named in the study have not formally responded. William Yang, a Taiwan-based security analyst with the International Crisis Group, told DW that the conclusions would be viewed with shock and said the plan appeared accommodating toward China. Yang added that its potential adoption would have “earthquake-level” consequences, while acknowledging there was no indication that the White House was preparing to implement it.
Other experts also criticized the proposal. Garren Mulloy of Daito Bunka University said a US withdrawal could leave a regional power vacuum for China and Russia, while Dan Pinkston of Troy University described the plan as flawed and unrealistic. Pinkston said abandoning alliances could reduce US influence over issues including piracy, sanctions enforcement, cybercrime, smuggling, climate change, fisheries and cross-border financial crime.