YouGov model puts Labour ahead in projected UK hung parliament

Labour would be the largest party in a hung UK parliament if a general election were held tomorrow, according to a new YouGov MRP poll reported by The Guardian. The model’s central estimate gives Labour 241 seats. That would leave the party short of a majority and represents a net loss of 170 seats compared with its result in the 2024 election, according to YouGov’s summary.

The projected result is nevertheless an improvement on YouGov’s model from the same time last year. That earlier projection suggested Labour would be reduced to 144 seats and placed Reform UK within touching distance of a majority. The wider polling picture described in the report shows Reform UK and the Conservative Party “neck-and-neck”.

The supplied material does not provide their projected seat totals, voting percentages or the estimated number of seats held by other parties. The Guardian cautioned that polling is more reliable for showing electoral trends than for predicting the exact result of a future election. The model describes what might happen if voters went to the polls now, rather than forecasting a scheduled contest with a confirmed campaign.

The figures arrive as Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch prepare for their respective party conferences, according to the report. Burnham’s conference is due the following week and Badenoch’s the week after, although the supplied material does not state how either politician responded to the poll. The results may shape the political environment in which parties operate, but the source emphasises that leaders should not treat the estimate as conclusive.

On the figures available, Labour leads the projected seat count while no party is forecast to control the Commons alone.