Andhra Pradesh forecast to receive below-normal October rainfall

Andhra Pradesh is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in October, the India Meteorological Department said in its monthly outlook released on Wednesday. The forecast indicates that most of the State will experience subdued rainfall activity. Isolated pockets of South Coastal Andhra Pradesh may receive normal rainfall, but the probability of below-normal conditions across the State ranges from 33.5 per cent to 55 per cent.

The IMD also expects October to be warmer than normal throughout Andhra Pradesh. Minimum temperatures are forecast to remain above their usual levels as well. The weather outlook comes as strong El Niño conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The IMD said sea-surface temperatures were well above average, particularly in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System and other major climate models indicate that El Niño will continue strengthening through the end of the year, according to the department. The Southwest Monsoon may withdraw from India by October 15.

The IMD’s Amaravati office has not issued a rain forecast for Andhra Pradesh during the first week of October. However, isolated thunderstorms are likely over Rayalaseema during that period. Strong winds, with speeds of 30 to 50 kilometres per hour, may occur at isolated places across the State.

The outlook describes expected rainfall and temperature patterns but does not provide a district-by-district forecast or estimate the effect of the conditions on agriculture, water supplies or other activities. It also does not state whether any weather warnings have been issued beyond the forecast of isolated thunderstorms and strong winds.