Ballon d’Or organisers investigate bets that matched exact top-five order

France Football has opened an investigation into a group of cryptocurrency prediction-market accounts that correctly forecast the exact top-five order in this year’s men’s Ballon d’Or and won almost $200,000, the Guardian reported. The organiser has also contacted police, according to the report. The bets predicted Harry Kane would win, followed by Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi.

That sequence matched the official results announced at a ceremony at the London Palladium, where Kane was crowned the winner. The suspected betting activity involved 12 Polymarket accounts, according to an investigation by French media outlet Upside. More than $264,000 was wagered on the outcome before Monday’s ceremony, with the accounts generating about $200,000, or £149,000, in winnings.

Raphaël Pautard, Upside’s co-founder, said his team identified the accounts after examining their activity. The accounts were created between 1 October and 20 October and displayed similar patterns, leading investigators to suspect that they may have been controlled by one person or group. Seven of the 12 accounts had not previously participated in other betting markets, while six placed their first bets 15 minutes after being created.

The accounts concentrated their money on the specific finishing order rather than spreading wagers across several possible outcomes. The Guardian reported that one account initially bought a contract predicting Kane would win at 37 cents and later sold it when the price reached 67 cents. The funds were then redirected to contracts covering individual finishing positions, including a prediction that Yamal would finish third.

The sequence has drawn attention because it suggests the bettor adjusted the strategy as the markets developed. Upside passed its findings, including blockchain transactions and wallet addresses, to France Football, which is owned by Groupe Amaury and has organised the award since 1956. Pautard said his team traced one transaction to a French platform, which reportedly identified the person behind one account used to fund the bets.

That person’s identity has not been made public. France Football confirmed on Friday afternoon that an investigation had been opened, according to the Guardian. The organiser has been contacted for comment, but the supplied report does not include a response.

The evidence described so far establishes an investigation and unusual betting accuracy, not who, if anyone, supplied confidential information. The possibility of a leak has attracted particular scrutiny because France Football had indicated before the ceremony that only a small number of people knew the winner in advance. The exact match between the predictions and the final top five has therefore raised questions about access to confidential results.

Former France Football editor Pascal Ferré said last week that keeping the winner secret depended on sharing the information with as few people as possible. The investigation will now examine the links between the accounts, the source of the money and whether their knowledge came from a leaked result or from another explanation.