Brazil heads to a tight Lula-Bolsonaro runoff after rival rallies

Brazilian voters go to the polls on Sunday for a presidential runoff between the incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, in an election shaped by disputes over crime, the economy and the country’s democratic future. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, finished narrowly ahead in the first round on 4 October, taking 47% of the vote against Lula’s 45%, according to Al Jazeera. The result made him the first-round frontrunner, but no candidate who has trailed after the opening vote has previously overturned that deficit in the second round, the BBC reported.

The available polling nevertheless points to a contest too close to call. A CNT/MDA survey published on Saturday put Bolsonaro at 46.3% and Lula at 45%, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. The previous week, the same poll had shown Bolsonaro leading 46.8% to 45.9%.

Both campaigns staged large final rallies on Saturday. Lula addressed supporters at Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana Beach, where he argued that voters were choosing between someone loyal to Brazil and someone aligned with the United States. His campaign has also portrayed the election as a defence of democratic institutions.

That argument is closely linked to the record of Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro. The former president, who served from 2019 to 2022, is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing that year’s election to Lula. Flávio has pledged to release his father, who is under house arrest because of ill health.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has focused on a tougher response to organised crime, including a major expansion of prison capacity, as well as reductions in taxes and public spending. His supporters told the BBC that they wanted change, lower violence and an end to what they described as years of left-wing economic mismanagement. One supporter quoted by AFP said the country needed to return to values centred on nation and family.

Lula’s supporters, meanwhile, have sought to increase turnout after 33 million people did not vote in the first round, according to the BBC. Lula said his opponents wanted Brazil to move backwards, while his campaign has accused Washington of interfering in the election. The United States has rejected that allegation as baseless.

The candidates adopted a less confrontational tone in their final televised debate on Friday, according to Al Jazeera, although they continued to blame one another for Brazil’s economic problems and political divisions. Lula plans to follow the count in São Paulo, while Bolsonaro is expected to be in Brasília. The result will determine whether Brazil remains under Lula’s left-wing leadership or moves toward the right under the son of its former president.