Brazil heads to Lula–Bolsonaro runoff after right-wing first-round lead
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential first round but fell short of the majority needed for victory. With 98.81% of votes counted, Bolsonaro had 47.24% and Lula 44.91%; the two will contest a runoff on 25 October.
Brazil’s presidential election will go to a runoff between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro after Bolsonaro finished ahead in the first round without securing an outright majority. With 98.81% of votes counted, Bolsonaro had 47.24% and Lula 44.91%, according to the supplied material. The runoff is scheduled for 25 October.
Brazil’s electoral system requires a candidate to win more than half of valid votes to avoid a second round. The result exceeded expectations after polling had generally shown Lula slightly ahead. It also came alongside strong performances by right-wing candidates in congressional contests, presenting a potential obstacle for Lula if he wins another term.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding an attempted coup after losing the 2022 election. The senator has pledged to pardon his father and supporters convicted over the 8 January 2023 riots. The younger Bolsonaro campaigned on tougher measures against criminal groups, tax relief and closer relations with the administration of US President Donald Trump.
He has also promoted his father’s political legacy, while saying he is more moderate than him. Lula, 80, sought a fourth non-consecutive term and presented the election as a choice between democracy and what he called “barbarism”. His platform includes welfare programmes, state-funded development and income redistribution.
He has argued that Brazil’s sovereignty is threatened by US pressure. The campaign was marked by disputes over crime, corruption, living costs and foreign influence. Bolsonaro faces allegations linked to financing a biographical film about his father and denies misconduct.
Lula’s camp has portrayed the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to Brazilian democracy. The runoff will determine whether Brazil follows a wider regional shift towards right-wing governments or retains Lula’s left-leaning administration. The result will also shape Brazil’s relations with the United States and China, its major trading partner.
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