Chinese vehicle exports forecast to reach 12 million in 2026

Chinese vehicle manufacturers are expected to sell more than 12 million vehicles overseas in 2026 as they accelerate expansion beyond the domestic market, the China Passenger Car Association said. The industry body’s forecast covers passenger cars, buses and lorries and represents a 44 per cent increase from the 8.3 million vehicles sold abroad last year. It is also above an earlier estimate of 10 million vehicles from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

CPCA data showed that deliveries outside mainland China rose 51 per cent year on year to 7.45 million units in the first eight months of 2026. The total includes vehicles made in China and Chinese-branded cars produced at factories outside the mainland. CPCA secretary general Cui Dongshu attributed the export drive partly to weak domestic demand.

He said overseas growth in the first eight months had exceeded expectations, with particularly strong increases in the European Union and Africa. Chinese-made electric vehicle exports rose 70 per cent year on year to 3.46 million units during the period. BYD, the world’s largest EV maker, recorded an 85.7 per cent increase in sales between January and August, exceeding 1.16 million units.

Chery Automobile said its exports rose 68.2 per cent to 1.34 million vehicles. The companies’ overseas growth contrasts with China’s domestic vehicle market, which fell 20 per cent during the first eight months to 11.7 million units. Analysts said vehicles could generate higher margins abroad.

Nick Lai of JPMorgan estimated that Chinese manufacturers could earn a net margin of 20,000 yuan per vehicle overseas, four times the domestic figure. Beijing published guidelines on September 1 requiring Chinese carmakers operating abroad to avoid steep discounts. Analysts said growth could slow in 2027 because of a high comparison base and a possible reduction in export tax rebates, although Cui said demand for EVs in new markets could sustain expansion.