Guardian modelling shows proportional voting could reshape UK parliament
Polling-based modelling commissioned by the Guardian suggests that proportional voting systems would produce a more finely balanced UK parliament than first past the post. Labour would remain the largest party but lose the seat advantage created by the current system, while smaller parties, including the Greens and Restore Britain, would gain substantially.
Polling-based modelling suggests that changing the United Kingdom’s voting system could substantially alter the composition of parliament, reducing the advantage currently given to the leading party under first past the post. The analysis by More in Common, produced for the Guardian, found that Labour would be projected to win 250 seats under first past the post, leaving it short of a majority. The modelling used recent polling and examined three proportional systems: regional party lists, single transferable vote and the additional member system.
Under regional party lists, Labour was projected to win 26% of seats from 26% of the vote. The party was projected to take 26% of seats under the additional member system and 27% under single transferable vote. None of the systems produced a single-party majority in the projections.
The modelling indicated that smaller parties would benefit most from proportional representation. The Greens were projected to rise from three seats under first past the post to more than 50 under each of the three proportional systems. Restore Britain was projected to win more than 30 seats under proportional systems, compared with one under first past the post.
The research suggested that a progressive alliance involving Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru, or a coalition involving Reform, the Conservatives and Restore Britain, could be among the possible routes to government. Some scenarios would produce a minority government. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has announced a national commission on electoral reform.
The proposal is supported by more than 100 Labour MPs and several other parties, according to the source material. More in Common’s Charlie Buckley said proportional representation would better reflect a close contest among Labour, Reform and the Conservatives. The modelling is based on polling rather than an election result.
The source says Labour leads recent polling at 26%, followed by Reform at 23% and the Conservatives at 20%, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats each on 10%.
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