Israel election ends without a clear winner as turnout reaches two-decade high

Israel’s election ended in a political stalemate, with exit polls showing opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led camp but neither side able to form a government without further negotiations. Three major Israeli networks, according to France 24, put Eisenkot’s bloc on 52 seats and Netanyahu’s on 50 in the 120-seat Knesset. The remaining 18 seats were projected to go to Arab parties that are not aligned with either main bloc.

Euronews reported that Channel 13 initially gave Eisenkot’s side 53 seats before revising the projection to 52. It also said Netanyahu’s Likud was expected to remain the largest single party, with either 24 or 25 seats depending on the broadcaster. The result leaves both camps short of the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.

Israel’s fragmented political system normally requires coalition-building, and France 24 noted that no single party has ever won an outright majority in the Knesset. Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party, has largely ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, according to France 24. That could make it difficult for him to turn a narrow bloc advantage into a governing coalition.

Smaller parties may therefore become decisive in the coming negotiations. The exit polls also differed sharply in their assessment of Netanyahu’s prospects. While the three major networks placed his bloc at about 50 seats, pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 projected the prime minister’s parties winning 60.

Final results could take days, and the early estimates may change as votes are counted. The election was the first since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. It was widely viewed as a test of Netanyahu’s leadership.

France 24 said Eisenkot campaigned as a centrist on domestic issues while maintaining a hardline security position, including opposition to Palestinian statehood and support for dismantling Hamas’s military wing. Turnout was 77.7%, Israel’s Central Elections Committee said, around seven percentage points above the 2022 election and the highest in more than two decades. France 24 said participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel was particularly strong, prompting celebrations at the Joint List headquarters in Nazareth.

Opposition figures presented the projections as a rejection of Netanyahu. Yair Lapid called the result a “crushing defeat” for the Netanyahu bloc, while Eisenkot wrote that it showed a “complete lack of confidence” in Netanyahu and what he called the October 7 government, according to Euronews. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar cautioned that left-wing celebrations were premature, stressing that Likud remained the largest party.

The Israel Democracy Institute’s president, Yohanan Plesner, described the projections as a major setback for Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition but said Eisenkot had not clearly won. If the final result follows the exit polls, Plesner said, Eisenkot could attempt to form a minority government, potentially removing Netanyahu even if the arrangement proved short-lived.