Israel exit polls show opposition narrowly ahead but coalition path remains uncertain

Israel’s opposition appeared to hold a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc in initial exit polls, but the projections left both camps short of the 61 seats needed to control the 120-member Knesset. Channels 11, 12 and 13 initially projected 52 or 53 seats for the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, compared with about 50 for Netanyahu’s allies. Likud remained the largest individual party, with an estimated 24 or 25 seats, while Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to win 21 to 23.

The figures remained preliminary and varied as the night progressed. France 24 reported that later projections from Channels 11 and 13 put the two blocs level at 51 seats, while Channel 12 continued to show a narrow opposition advantage. The uncertainty means that the final result and subsequent coalition negotiations will be decisive.

Eisenkot declared victory and said the results gave him the first opportunity to form a government. Channels Television quoted him as describing the outcome as a “complete lack of confidence” in Netanyahu and the government formed after the October 7 attacks. Netanyahu’s foreign minister, Gideon Saar, said opposition celebrations were premature.

France 24 reported that he stressed Likud was still the country’s largest party. The reports also said Netanyahu had campaigned on security issues involving Hamas and Iran and had warned right-wing voters that low turnout could enable a government supported by Arab parties. Turnout was notably high.

India Today reported that 74.3% of eligible voters had cast ballots by 8pm, the highest figure at that point since 1988. Participation was reported at 63.6% in Tel Aviv, 62% in Jerusalem and 59.8% in Haifa, although the national figure included voting in towns with substantially different turnout levels. Arab-led parties made gains in the projections but were not counted as part of the main opposition bloc.

Channels Television estimated that Raam and the Joint List would win 17 or 18 seats between them. France 24 said Raam had expressed openness to working with Eisenkot’s bloc, while the Joint List was more likely to offer outside support than formally join a coalition. The coalition arithmetic is complicated by the political distance between the parties.

France 24 reported that Eisenkot’s camp had kept Arab parties at arm’s length during the campaign, despite their potential importance. Netanyahu’s bloc, meanwhile, was said to have limited obvious options for adding seats after smaller right-wing parties failed to pass the electoral threshold. President Isaac Herzog is expected to appoint the candidate judged most likely to form a government, rather than automatically choosing the leader of the largest party.

That candidate would normally have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If no coalition emerges, Israel could face another election, although the reports also noted the possibility of a minority government or a broader unity arrangement.