Israel’s opposition gains narrow edge but coalition arithmetic remains unresolved

Israel’s first legislative election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 2023 produced no clear victor, according to exit polls cited by France 24 and Euronews. The projections gave the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot a narrow advantage over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-aligned camp. Channel 12 and an updated Channel 13 projection put Eisenkot’s bloc on 52 seats and Netanyahu’s on 50 in the 120-seat Knesset.

Channel 13 had initially estimated 53 seats for Eisenkot’s side. The variation underlined the preliminary nature of the figures. Although Netanyahu’s bloc trailed in the combined totals, Likud was projected to be the largest single party.

Euronews said Channel 13 estimated Likud would win 25 seats, while Channel 12 gave it 24. That distinction could matter in coalition negotiations even if the broader opposition grouping remains ahead. Neither major camp was close to the 61 seats needed for a majority.

Arab parties were projected to win 18 seats, which Euronews described as a record showing and France 24 identified as the balance of the Knesset in the initial projections. The Arab bloc’s role remained uncertain. France 24 reported that Eisenkot had effectively ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, despite their potential importance in preventing Netanyahu’s coalition from returning to power.

The composition of the next government could therefore depend on smaller Jewish parties or a minority arrangement. Turnout exceeded 77%, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee, making it the country’s highest participation rate in more than two decades. France 24 said the figure was about seven percentage points higher than in the previous election in 2022.

High participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel was reflected in celebrations by the Joint List, according to the report. The vote was widely treated as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership during the wars that followed the 2023 attacks. Eisenkot, a former military chief, presented himself as a security-focused alternative while offering a break with Netanyahu and his far-right partners on domestic politics.

France 24 reported that he nevertheless opposes Palestinian statehood and supports the destruction or dismantling of Hamas’s military wing. Eisenkot said on X that the projections showed a “complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and the October 7 government.” Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, said the public had “spoken” and removed the Netanyahu government, according to Euronews. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar responded that celebrations by the left were premature and pointed to Likud’s position as the largest party.

The final outcome could take days, and the differing projections leave the balance unsettled. France 24 reported that Netanyahu could remain in a caretaker role while parties attempt to assemble a coalition. The Israel Democracy Institute’s Yohanan Plesner said Eisenkot might seek a minority government if the exit-poll pattern held, but warned that the opposition leader had not emerged as an unambiguous winner.