Latvians vote amid security concerns and cost-of-living pressures

Latvia is voting in a parliamentary election dominated by concerns about neighbouring Russia and the cost of living, although the result is not expected to take the country away from its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. The centre-right United List, led by incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, is at the head of the race with more than 14 per cent support, according to the SKDS institute. The governing coalition is expected to emerge weaker, however, as populist parties gain ground by focusing on economic pressures.

The current coalition consists of United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance. Polls indicate that the bloc is unlikely to retain power in its present form. Fourteen electoral lists are contesting the election, but only seven are expected to cross the 5 per cent threshold for entering the 100-seat unicameral Parliament.

The populist Sovereign Power party, led by Julija Stepanenko, is polling above 9 per cent and could become the second-largest party. Its critics describe it as pro-Russian. The party opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defence spending, while placing domestic economic problems at the centre of its campaign.

Most major parties have ruled out cooperating with Sovereign Power, making its entry into government unlikely despite its projected gains. Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, could be a more viable coalition partner. The pro-European social democratic Progressives are polling at about 6 per cent and support stronger social protections and continued assistance to Ukraine.

Security remains central to the debate four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Latvia, a member of Nato and the European Union since 2004, regards Russia as its principal security threat and has raised defence spending to nearly 5 per cent of gross domestic product. Most parties expected to enter Parliament support maintaining high military spending and helping Kyiv.

Economic concerns include rising living costs, low wages, pressure on healthcare and long-term population decline. About one in five voters remained undecided. Partial results were expected on Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due on Sunday, followed by potentially lengthy coalition negotiations.