Lula and Bolsonaro face decisive Brazil presidential runoff

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro held their final rallies on Saturday before a presidential runoff described by Euronews as a knife-edge contest. The election follows three weeks of intense campaigning after Bolsonaro led the first round with 47% of the vote to Lula’s 45%. The rivals converged on Rio de Janeiro’s beaches after a final televised debate on Friday.

That debate was calmer than their first encounter, which was marked by insults and few policy proposals. Lula questioned Bolsonaro’s experience, while Bolsonaro accused the incumbent of leaving behind a “broken country”. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term.

Euronews described his political base as rooted in his earlier career as a union worker and his first two presidencies, when a commodities boom and social programmes including direct cash assistance helped lift millions of Brazilians out of poverty. His current term has also brought difficulties. The report said his approval rating at points fell as low as 24% as voters expressed concern about crime and the cost of living.

Lula has nevertheless warned against foreign interference in the election and made Brazilian sovereignty and the influence of foreign social-media companies important campaign themes. Flávio Bolsonaro entered the race after his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from standing while serving a 27-year house-detention sentence for staging an attempted coup after losing to Lula in 2022. The younger Bolsonaro has largely adopted his father’s ultra-conservative politics while attempting to moderate his communication to appeal to centrist voters.

Security has been central to his campaign. He has promised to address Brazil’s crime problems, create 500,000 additional prison places and reduce government spending. Euronews said polling showed support for his hard-line security proposals, although the supplied reports do not give specific figures or identify a projected winner.

Bolsonaro’s campaign has also faced scrutiny over his admission that he accepted millions of dollars from banker Daniel Vorcaro to make a film about his father’s life. He is under investigation in connection with allegations including corruption, money-laundering and tax evasion. The election carries international significance because Brazil plays a major role in protecting the Amazon rainforest.

Euronews reported that deforestation reached a record high during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, while his son has denied human-caused climate change and committed only to stopping illegal deforestation. Under Lula, satellite monitoring and law enforcement were increased, followed by a record low in new clearances in recent years. A Bolsonaro victory would place Brazil among a group of Latin American countries with governments friendly to US President Donald Trump, including Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica and Peru, according to Euronews.

Relations with Washington have already been strained: Trump imposed tariffs on Brazilian goods and classified the country’s largest drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organisations, a move opposed by Lula’s administration. The runoff will therefore decide more than the presidency. It will determine whether Brazil remains one of the region’s few left-wing governments, influence its approach to the Amazon and shape its relations with the United States.

The supplied reports establish a close race, but provide no final result or confirmed polling advantage.