Lula secures historic fourth term in Brazil’s tight presidential runoff

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won an unprecedented fourth term, defeating conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a narrow runoff, according to the country’s electoral authorities. Official figures cited by DW and France 24 put Lula on 51.7% of the vote against 48.2% for Bolsonaro, while The Guardian reported a final tally of 51.75% to 48.25% with almost all ballots counted. The result represents a major comeback for Lula, who finished second to Bolsonaro in the first round earlier in October.

The Guardian described him as the first candidate since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s to win the presidency after failing to lead the initial vote. Lula had previously served as president from 2003 to 2011 and returned to office after defeating Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, in 2022. The reports differ slightly on Lula’s age, placing him at 80 or nearly 81.

They agree that the victory caps a long political career that began with his emergence as a metalworkers’ union leader in São Paulo. Lula was jailed from 2018 to 2019 on corruption charges that were later overturned, clearing the way for his return to electoral politics. Lula’s campaign presented the election as a choice between his record on poverty and inequality and a possible reversal of social policies under Bolsonaro.

France 24 reported that Lula pointed to falls in poverty, inequality, unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation during his third term. He also campaigned on expanding welfare payments, introducing free weekend public transport nationwide and pursuing labour reforms. The runoff was preceded by disputes over access to polling stations.

Lula’s team alleged that public buses had been prevented from operating in São Paulo and elsewhere, limiting turnout in areas favourable to the left. Lula claimed that 40% of buses in São Paulo had been kept out of service; DW said local reports referred to 75 buses being blocked from leaving depots. Bolsonaro’s team separately cited poor weather in some regions.

Brazil’s Supreme Court extended voting until 7 p.m. local time after the complaints. The court’s chief, Edson Fachin, urged both candidates to accept the result, saying Brazil needed calm to address its major challenges.

The supplied reports do not establish whether the transport allegations were independently proven, but The Guardian said the reported effort did not prevent Lula from winning. The president’s victory also carries regional and international significance. Lula had warned that Bolsonaro would place Brazil’s sovereignty too closely under US influence, while France 24 said the result halted a sequence of right-wing victories in Latin America and denied US President Donald Trump another broadly pro-Trump regional ally.

The reports describe Trump as close to the Bolsonaro family, although they provide no account of a formal endorsement in this election. Lula’s next term will begin under difficult institutional conditions. France 24 reported that Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and allied groups could command more than 280 seats in the lower house and as many as 50 in the Senate, giving the right a potentially comfortable majority.

Analysts cited by the outlet said Lula could face difficult coalitions, reduced influence over appointments and even impeachment pressure. Economic constraints add to the challenge. France 24 said the government forecasts growth of 2.3% next year, while public debt has risen above 82% of gross domestic product and interest rates remain high.

The election therefore gives Lula a historic mandate, but not an uncomplicated one.