Nigeria’s 2027 contest begins to be tested by election results and surveys
Nigeria’s 2027 political contest is moving beyond declarations and endorsements, with recent INEC-run bye-elections, voter-sentiment polling and party realignments offering early evidence of the emerging race. The APC won four of five legislative contests, while opposition parties are working to turn political enthusiasm and defections into organised support.
Nigeria’s 2027 election campaign is beginning to produce evidence beyond political declarations, according to an analysis by Channels Television. Recent bye-elections, a voter-sentiment survey and changes in party structures are providing early indications of the forces shaping the contest. Five legislative seats were contested in INEC-run bye-elections on September 19 across Gombe, Kano, Bauchi and Delta.
The APC won four seats, while the Allied Peoples Movement won one. The APC victories were recorded in the Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency, Dawakin Kudu State Constituency in Kano, Disina State Constituency in Bauchi and Udu State Constituency in Delta. The APM won Sakwa State Constituency in Bauchi.
The analysis cautioned against treating the results as a national forecast. It said local candidates, turnout and constituency-specific circumstances affected the contests. It also said apparent discrepancies between accreditation figures and votes on some result sheets required examination.
Even with those qualifications, the results showed APC organisation across the North-East, North-West and South-South, the analysis said. The Kano result was noted as particularly significant, although the NDC and ADC did not contest the Dawakin Kudu election, limiting its value as a direct test of the presidential race. The ruling party’s organisational strength is being weighed against economic pressures.
Rising petrol prices have intensified the cost-of-living debate, creating a contrast between the APC’s incumbency and mobilisation capacity and voters’ experience of government policy. The NDC is developing a national campaign structure around presidential candidate Peter Obi and running mate Rabiu Kwankwaso. The party has authorised appointments to senior campaign positions, but the analysis identified the conversion of enthusiasm into ward-level organisation and polling-unit machinery as a key challenge.
Party movements are also continuing. Former PDP governorship candidate Eyitayo Jegede and supporters joined the ADC in Ondo, while former Labour campaign coordinator Sola Ebiseni joined the APC. The analysis warned, however, that defections should not automatically be counted as votes.
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