Nigeria’s 2027 race shifts from declarations to measurable political tests

Nigeria’s 2027 election is beginning to move beyond declarations, endorsements and claims of political control as bye-election results, surveys and party activity provide measurable evidence, according to a Channels Television analysis. Five legislative bye-elections held on September 19 across Gombe, Kano, Bauchi and Delta were conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission. The APC won four seats, while the Allied Peoples Movement won one.

The APC prevailed in the Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency and in state constituencies in Dawakin Kudu, Disina and Udu. The APM won the Sakwa State Constituency seat in Bauchi. The analysis cautioned against treating the results as a national forecast.

It said local candidates, turnout and constituency circumstances mattered, and noted that some polling-unit result sheets had raised questions about differences between accreditation figures and votes recorded. Those claims, it said, required examination. The results nevertheless suggested organisational strength for the ruling party across the North-East, North-West and South-South.

The APC’s Dawakin Kudu victory also indicated that Kano should not be treated as politically settled, although the NDC and ADC did not contest that election. The analysis identified the economy as another important factor. Rising petrol prices and cost-of-living pressures could influence how voters assess the government’s policies, even as the APC relies on incumbency and political organisation.

Opposition movements are trying to convert popularity into machinery. The NDC has authorised Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso to appoint senior campaign officials, while Atiku Abubakar and Rauf Aregbesola received former PDP governorship candidate Eyitayo Jegede into the ADC in Ondo. The analysis stressed that defections were not votes unless politicians brought substantial voter support with them.