US voters set to decide control of Congress in closely watched midterms

US voters will go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, in midterm elections that could determine how much of President Donald Trump’s agenda can advance during the final two years of his second term. The president is not on the ballot, but every seat in the House, 35 Senate seats and governorships in 36 states are being contested. Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress.

According to the South China Morning Post, they hold 218 House seats to the Democrats’ 214, with two vacancies and one independent who sits with Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 47, including two independents who caucus with them; Democrats also need a net gain of four.

The Senate outcome could turn on a group of closely fought races. Euronews identified Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia among the states to watch. Two special elections are also being held in Ohio and Florida for seats vacated by J.D.

Vance and Marco Rubio after they joined the administration as vice-president and secretary of state respectively. Voters in 36 states will choose governors, who oversee state governments and much of everyday public policy, including policing and healthcare. Fifteen of those states have no incumbent on the ballot.

Thousands of state and local contests are taking place alongside the federal races. The midterms are commonly treated as a referendum on the sitting president. Euronews said voters’ views on the cost of living, the economy, immigration and foreign policy could shape the results, while the South China Morning Post reported that polls gave Democrats an advantage going into the vote.

Both accounts emphasised that the final result would depend on a relatively small number of competitive contests. A Democratic takeover of either congressional chamber would give the party power to block Trump’s legislation and use committees to investigate his administration, the South China Morning Post reported. If Republicans retain both majorities, Trump would have a clearer route for passing legislation and pursuing his domestic programme.

More than 100 million people could vote if turnout matches the 2022 midterms. By October 12, political advertising spending had reached a reported $3.8 billion. The US has no single national election authority: states and counties organise the vote under differing rules, with more than 10,000 voting jurisdictions operating across the country.

Results will not necessarily be known on election night. Media organisations and the Associated Press make projections using partial counts and statistical models, but those calls are not official results. Postal ballots take longer to process, polling places close at different times and close races may take days to resolve; formal certification can take weeks.

The election will therefore establish the political direction immediately, while some individual outcomes may remain unsettled.