Brazil election pits Lula against Bolsonaro’s son in closely watched contest

Brazil is preparing for a presidential election on October 4 in which President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is expected to face Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Polling cited by DW shows Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro closely matched in a potential runoff. The election has attracted international attention because Brazil is a major agricultural producer with substantial natural resources, including rare earth elements, water and oil.

Foreign policy has not dominated the campaign, but the result could affect Brazil’s relationship with the United States. Lula favours multilateral diplomacy and trade with multiple partners, while Flavio Bolsonaro is part of a stronger conservative movement aligned more closely with Washington. Analyst Leonardo Paz said a Bolsonaro victory would not automatically produce better US relations.

He said Lula had maintained a broadly normal relationship with Trump despite initial friction, while Flavio would be more likely to accommodate the US. A Bolsonaro administration could also review Brazil’s continued membership of BRICS. Flavio has criticised the grouping as provocative towards the United States and opposed efforts to reduce the global dominance of the dollar.

Analysts said economic ties with China would probably limit any dramatic shift. China is Brazil’s most important trading partner, particularly for the agricultural sector, and commentators compared the situation with Argentina’s Javier Milei, who softened earlier criticism of Beijing after taking office. Lula is regarded as the more experienced foreign-policy figure, while Flavio is described as inexperienced internationally.

Analysts expect Brazil to remain an important voice in the Global South, though its economic and military capacity limits its ability to shape conflicts directly.