Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula as Brazil presidential race heads to runoff

Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a runoff after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but failed to secure the majority required for an outright victory. The second round is scheduled for 25 October, according to the country’s electoral court and multiple reports. With almost all ballots counted, Bolsonaro received about 47% of the vote and Lula about 45%.

The BBC gave the figures as 47.03% and 45.16%, while DW reported 47.2% and 45%. NDTV confirmed the runoff and Bolsonaro’s first-place finish but did not provide vote totals. The result contradicted opinion-poll projections that had generally placed Lula in front.

Bolsonaro, 45, described the result as a “real possibility” of victory in three weeks and said Brazil could choose a “modern government”. Lula, 80, said the outcome was unexpected because he had believed he would win in the first round. He told supporters that “tomorrow we start a new campaign” and said he was confident in the “knockout stage”.

The vote represents a major revival for the Bolsonaro family. Flávio was little known nationally before his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, endorsed him as his political heir. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his defeat by Lula in the 2022 election.

Flávio has promised to pardon his father if elected. The election also produced significant gains for the right in the legislature. Reports said Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won the largest bloc of Senate seats and performed strongly in contests for governors and federal deputies.

Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle, and son Carlos Bolsonaro won Senate seats, while his youngest son, Jair Renan, was elected as a federal lawmaker. A professor quoted by DW said the right-wing takeover in Congress could make governing difficult for Lula even if he wins the presidency. The runoff will offer both candidates three weeks to attract voters who supported eliminated contenders.

ABC News Australia reported that Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together received about 5.3 million votes, had previously said they would not endorse either candidate. The reports do not establish whether that position has changed. The campaign has focused on sovereignty, crime, living costs, corruption and the direction of Brazil’s democracy.

Lula has framed the contest as a choice between democracy and “barbarism” and warned that Brazil’s sovereignty faces pressure from the United States. Bolsonaro has promoted tougher security policies and tax cuts, while criticising high taxes and the cost of living under Lula. Bolsonaro has presented himself as more moderate than his father, although DW reported that he still calls Jair Bolsonaro his “compass” and point of reference.

The younger Bolsonaro shares positions with his father on relaxed gun controls and scepticism about human-caused climate change. He is also under investigation over alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion linked to financing a biopic about his father; he denies wrongdoing. US President Donald Trump has said he is watching the election closely but has not endorsed Bolsonaro.

His administration has imposed tariffs and sanctions on Brazil in connection with Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial and other disputes. A Bolsonaro victory would place Brazil within the broader rightward movement identified by the reports across Latin America. Lula’s success would preserve greater distance from Washington, according to ABC News Australia.