Kerala records seventh-lowest southwest monsoon rainfall since 1901

Kerala’s southwest monsoon ended with rainfall 28% below normal, leaving large parts of the state facing drought-like conditions, according to India Meteorological Department data. The state received 1,446.5 millimetres of rain against a normal 2,018.6 millimetres. It was Kerala’s seventh-lowest southwest monsoon total since 1901 and its fourth-lowest since 2001.

Idukki and Wayanad, which contain a major share of the state’s reservoirs and hydropower capacity, were among the worst-affected districts. Each received about half its normal rainfall. Nearly 70% of Kerala remained significantly rain-deficient at the end of the season.

Eight districts recorded deficits of between 20% and 53%, while six had deficits ranging from 0% to 20%. The season was marked by prolonged dry periods interrupted by occasional intense rainfall, including spells that narrowed the deficit temporarily but did not reverse it. The state recorded a 34% deficit by July 31.

Subsequent heavy rain, aided by weather systems over central India and an offshore trough, reduced the shortfall to 23% by early August. Heavy rainfall also contributed to a debris slip in Wayanad, according to the report. Climate scientist V.K.

Mini said extended-range forecasts did not indicate major rainfall in Kerala over the following four weeks. The northeast monsoon normally begins by mid-October, but the opening month is expected to be below normal. Southern and central Kerala could receive normal or slightly above-normal rain later in the season, particularly in November.

However, experts said the emerging El Niño could produce intense spells separated by further dry periods, while the absence of sustained moderate rainfall has limited groundwater recharge.