Police warn court and prison pressures could put more sex offenders on bail

Police sources have warned that more sex offenders in England and Wales could be released on bail rather than remanded in custody as pressure grows on courts, prisons and probation services. The warning follows criticism by Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley of the decision to bail Zafer Dogan after he admitted taking images of children and women and using artificial intelligence to sexualise them. Dogan was bailed to a flat overlooking a children’s playground, from which he had committed some offences, before being sentenced to two years in prison.

One of his victims moved home after the courts declined to imprison him before sentencing. A senior police source told the Guardian that forces were braced for more cases in which suspects who should be remanded were released, causing distress to victims. The government’s early-release policy, intended to ease pressure on prisons nearing capacity, is expected to begin next Thursday.

The source said probation was struggling and police were taking on additional offender-management duties that could reduce frontline crime-fighting capacity. The Metropolitan Police also described the case of a 17-year-old who was bailed five times between June and September. The force said he breached electronic-tag conditions twice and was accused of four further offences, including two robberies and making and distributing indecent images of children.

The National Police Chiefs’ Council said the criminal justice system was under severe strain and supported the aim of reducing pressure on prison capacity, but warned that public confidence must not be lost. It said prison places should prioritise dangerous and prolific criminals. The council estimated that early release could cost policing £480m and lead to a crime increase of up to 6%.

The London victims’ commissioner said the Dogan case raised serious questions about how victims would be protected as more offenders entered the community. The government said victims, witnesses and the public must always be considered.