South Africa’s local vote tests ANC after years of service failures

South Africa’s municipal elections have become a major test for the governing African National Congress, with voters casting ballots amid frustration over water outages, electricity cuts and deteriorating infrastructure. The Guardian reported that the ANC was expected to remain the largest party but could receive less than one-third of the vote, a sharp decline from its performances in recent national and municipal elections. The ANC won 45.6% at the previous municipal elections in 2021 and 40.2% in the 2024 national election, according to The Guardian.

The lower polling estimates for this contest reflect the party’s difficulty converting its historic role as the movement that ended apartheid into confidence in the performance of local governments. In Johannesburg’s Kensington suburb, residents described repeated interruptions to water and electricity. Tshepiso Makotse, a 26-year-old call-centre worker, said “service delivery is bad” and that she wanted change.

Retired boilermaker Terrence Pieters said Johannesburg’s infrastructure was “shot” and expected no single party to take control, predicting a coalition. That expectation reflects the fragmented political landscape. Many of South Africa’s 257 municipalities already rely on coalitions, and analysts cited by The Guardian linked their instability and high turnover to poor service delivery.

Johannesburg has had 10 mayors in 10 years, while the neighbouring municipality of Ekurhuleni has had three since 2021. In Tshwane, which includes Pretoria, the mayoralty has changed hands between parties four times since 2020. The consequences of weak infrastructure have included public-health concerns.

More than 800 people contracted a gastrointestinal illness from contaminated water in Bronkhorstspruit, east of Tshwane, in October. Johannesburg, meanwhile, had faced water shortages lasting more than a week at the time of the report. Coalition negotiations will determine how the election translates into local power.

Vote fragmentation could allow the ANC to lead some city administrations even where it loses support. The party’s national leadership was reported to be open to working with the Democratic Alliance in Gauteng, following the model of the national government of unity, but local ANC figures were said to oppose such an arrangement. The Democratic Alliance was expected to retain its majority in Cape Town, although possibly with a smaller share than the 58% it won in 2021.

Housing costs have become a liability for the party there, while Helen Zille’s campaign in Johannesburg included highly publicised stunts involving a pothole and a flooded street. ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba ruled out working with Zille in Johannesburg and has called her a racist, an allegation she denies. The ANC also faces a challenge from former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party, which was polling above 40% in eThekwini, home to Durban, while the ANC was around 10%.

The Electoral Commission has a week to announce final results. Parties then have two weeks to form councils and elect mayors, who are chosen indirectly by councillors rather than directly by voters.