Speculation grows over Carney’s prospects for major international honours

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emerged as a subject of growing speculation over two major international honours after building a global profile through his opposition to US President Donald Trump. Carney briefly became the leading choice on Kalshi, a US-based prediction market, for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. Traders assigned him a 14% chance on Monday before his odds declined.

The movement highlighted the speculative nature of such markets, and there is no public evidence that Carney is on the Nobel Committee’s secret shortlist. The Nobel Peace Prize is due to be announced in Oslo on October 9. Time magazine’s Person of the Year will be announced on December 10.

Carney was the second choice on major prediction markets for the Time award on Tuesday, behind New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Carney’s standing has risen as Canada and the United States have become embroiled in an escalating trade dispute. The source material says the United States has imposed 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods, while Canada has retaliated.

Trump has also warned Canadian leaders to comply with US demands or face further consequences. Political scientist Daniel Beland said Trump would be furious if Carney won the Nobel. Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, said the US President would be unhappy whoever received the prize and that a Carney victory could further strain relations.

Carney has argued that middle powers should cooperate to defend their sovereignty as major powers increasingly use economic and military pressure. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, he said the old international order would not return and urged countries to work together. He has since sought closer ties between Canada and Europe and new partnerships in Asia.

European lawmakers recently gave him a standing ovation as the European Commission proposed allowing Canada to become the European Union’s first associate member.