Study identifies South Peninsular India as India’s strongest drought-trend region
A 52-year analysis has found a strong long-term increase in drought-affected areas across South Peninsular India, which includes Tamil Nadu. The research also records rising heat extremes and heat stress, and calls for region-specific responses spanning agriculture, water management, health and infrastructure.
South Peninsular India, including Tamil Nadu, has recorded the strongest long-term increase in drought-affected area among India’s four broad climatic regions, according to a 52-year analysis. The study, published in the International Journal of Climatology, examined daily rainfall and temperature data from 1971 to 2022. Researchers developed a revised India Climate Extremes Index combining seven indicators, including heat, drought, dry spells and heavy rainfall.
The analysis found that less than 10% of South Peninsular India was affected by drought during much of the period before the 1990s. In several years after 2000, however, more than 40% of the region experienced drought conditions. Severe and persistent drought was particularly evident during the 2010s and early 2020s.
A media note accompanying the research identified Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh among eastern coastal States where drought-affected area increased by 20% to 30% during 2011–2021 compared with the 1980s. Researchers assessed drought using the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, which measures both rainfall and potential evaporation. This approach captures the effect of rising temperatures on water availability more fully than a rainfall-only indicator.
The study also found an increase in high maximum-temperature extremes in South Peninsular India, particularly since the 2010s. The researchers linked the greater heat exposure to declining rainfall, urban heat-island effects and broader climate-change impacts. The Heat Index, which combines temperature and humidity, also showed a steady increase.
Rising minimum temperatures and high humidity associated with the region’s proximity to the Bay of Bengal were identified as contributing factors, along with urbanisation and warmer sea-surface temperatures. The study did not find a significant long-term increase in consecutive dry days, although year-to-year variation was substantial. Its authors called for adaptation measures covering agriculture, water, health and infrastructure, supported by more detailed monitoring of local climate extremes.
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