Tamil Nadu may receive normal northeast monsoon rainfall, weather office says
India’s Meteorological Department forecasts a broadly normal northeast monsoon for Tamil Nadu, with normal to above-normal rain expected in southern and coastal areas but below-normal rainfall in northern interior districts. The forecast follows a 20% southwest monsoon deficit and includes a possible onset in the third week of October.
Tamil Nadu is likely to receive normal rainfall during the northeast monsoon, according to the India Meteorological Department, after the State recorded a 20% deficit during the southwest monsoon. The northeast monsoon provides a substantial share of Tamil Nadu’s annual rainfall, which averages about 44 centimetres during the season. IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said conditions were favourable for the monsoon to begin from the third week of October.
Southern and coastal parts of the State are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while northern interior districts may receive below-normal amounts. The IMD expects October to bring normal to above-normal rain to many areas, but parts of north Tamil Nadu could remain below average. The southwest monsoon officially ended on September 30.
Several districts recorded deficits exceeding 35%, including Nagapattinam, Karur, Thanjavur, Thoothukudi and Chengalpattu. The forecasted northeast monsoon therefore assumes added significance for the State. Mohapatra said strong El Niño conditions were expected to strengthen further through the end of the year.
During El Niño years, weather systems often move towards Tamil Nadu, south Andhra Pradesh and Sri Lanka during the northeast monsoon. The development of low-pressure systems could influence rainfall activity, he said. A neutral Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to continue.
The IMD noted that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is generally considered favourable for a good northeast monsoon, but did not describe the neutral phase as having the same effect. The Regional Meteorological Centre forecast wet weather in the Western Ghats and interior areas until the weekend. Heavy rain could occur at one or two places in the Nilgiris, Coimbatore and Erode districts, while interior districts could receive moderate rain.
A north-south trough extending towards the Gulf of Mannar is expected to influence the weather. Temperatures were forecast to remain near normal from October 1, although Chennai could reach 36–37C. The regional centre said light rain could occur in parts of the city.
Officials said the State was in transition between the southwest and northeast monsoons. A change in wind direction and increased cloud cover could lower temperatures, while mild rainfall might continue in some areas until October 6.
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