Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize prospects questioned before 2026 announcement
Experts cited by ABC News Australia say Donald Trump is unlikely to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, despite reports that leaders in Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan nominated him. The assessment follows last year’s award to María Corina Machado and her later presentation of the prize to Trump, an unusual episode that analysts say may influence the committee’s deliberations.
Donald Trump is unlikely to receive the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, according to experts cited by ABC News Australia, days before the winner is due to be announced. The Norwegian Nobel Committee is scheduled to reveal the recipient on October 9, but the shortlist of 287 nominees is not public. Trump has repeatedly said he deserves the award and has openly expressed a desire to receive it.
ABC reported that he was nominated this year by the leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, although the Nobel committee does not confirm individual nominations. NDTV’s supplied material is more cautious, saying it does not establish whether Trump was nominated or identify the experts behind the speculation. The discussion has been shaped by last year’s prize.
Venezuelan opposition politician María Corina Machado received the 2025 award for what the committee described as her struggle for a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy. In January 2026, Machado presented the prize to Trump, an act the committee said did not transfer ownership of the award. Trump called Machado’s gesture “a wonderful gesture of mutual respect”.
The episode is nevertheless expected to be considered by the committee, according to Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo. He said the committee may weigh whether choosing a recipient could expose it to pressure from Trump or cause more harm than good. Gjerløw, described by ABC as a leading forecaster, assesses Trump’s chances as “quite low”.
Shawn Davies of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program said Washington had moved in some circumstances from guarantor of the postwar order to violator of it. He added that even Trump’s political base might not believe he could win while he remained involved in what he called a continuing war in Iran. The supplied reports do not present a definitive list of contenders.
Gjerløw identified the International Space Station as a possible candidate, describing it as an unusual symbol of international cooperation during a period of weakening multilateralism. He also mentioned Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, citing his opposition to Trump over US tariffs. Other names and organisations on his forecast list include Ukrainian children’s advocate Mykola Kuleba, Save the Children, Sudan’s grassroots Emergency Response Rooms and the Committee to Protect Journalists.
The suggestions come as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue and as the number of nominations remains high. The prize, created from Alfred Nobel’s bequest, carries 12 million Swedish krona, valued in the ABC report at about $1.7 million. It is selected by a committee chosen by Norway’s parliament.
Nelson Wiseman, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, predicted that Trump would be unhappy regardless of the result. The committee’s decision, rather than the forecasts, will determine whether the president’s campaign for the award succeeds.
Vertrix News compared the attributed reports listed below and wrote this independent synthesis. Claims remain attributed where independent verification was unavailable.