Brazil election heads for close first round between Lula and Bolsonaro

Brazil’s presidential election is heading towards a likely runoff after final polling showed President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro separated by one percentage point. The latest Quaest poll, cited by Reuters, put Lula on 46% and Bolsonaro on 45% in the first round. Neither candidate was expected to receive more than 50% of valid votes, the level required to avoid a second round scheduled for October 25.

Lula, 80, closed his campaign in Sao Paulo by promising to defeat the far right. He presented the election as a choice between democracy and sovereignty on one side and what he called barbarism and corruption on the other. His Workers’ Party platform includes welfare programmes, state-funded development and income redistribution.

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, a senator for Rio de Janeiro, campaigned on tougher security policies and tax cuts while attacking the cost of living under Lula. He said he was confident of winning in the first round and displayed a portrait of his father, Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his defeat by Lula in the 2022 election.

Flavio has promised to pardon him if elected. In a hypothetical runoff, the Quaest poll showed Flavio on 44% and Lula on 42%. The campaign has been bitter, with both sides using online operations, edited videos and AI-generated images.

Flavio Bolsonaro is also under investigation over alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion connected to the financing of a biopic about his father. He denies wrongdoing. About 160 million registered voters are also choosing lawmakers, governors and some senators.

The result will determine whether Lula secures another term or whether Bolsonaro’s movement returns to the presidency through his son.