Canada weighs unlikely US invasion scenario amid strained ties

Canada is preparing for a highly unlikely US invasion scenario as relations with Washington are redefined under President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times. Carney said he had a responsibility to consider all possibilities, describing the exercise as risk management. Trump’s tariffs and repeated suggestion that Canada could become the 51st US state have prompted Ottawa to model how it might respond to an attack, according to the BBC.

Trump said in 2025 that the US was highly unlikely to use force against Canada. The White House said this week that he had done more than anyone to protect Canadians. Military experts also described an invasion as a remote prospect.

Christopher Coates, a former senior Royal Canadian Air Force officer, said the two countries’ defence cooperation made a war difficult to imagine. Canada and the US are both Nato members, conduct joint Arctic missions through NORAD and share intelligence. Coates said any conflict might begin with less visible methods, such as cyberwarfare, rather than an armed assault.

The BBC reported that Canadian public concern has nevertheless increased, with a January Leger poll suggesting more than 30% of respondents believed an invasion was likely. Canada’s historical experience includes US invasions of British North American colonies in 1775 and during the War of 1812. Researchers said Canadian authorities have previously prepared for unlikely scenarios, including by studying infrastructure near the US border.

A Canadian military model reported by the Globe and Mail suggested that strategic positions could be overwhelmed within a week in a hypothetical attack, forcing guerrilla-style resistance. The material says the model is a limited planning exercise, not a prediction.