India sets lower foodgrain target despite rainfall deficit and El Niño
India’s agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan says a current rainfall deficit of about 12% is unlikely to cause a major national production crisis. The government has set a 2026-27 foodgrain target of 373.93 million tonnes and plans crop changes in areas facing low rainfall.
India’s Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has said the country’s current rainfall deficit is unlikely to cause a major national crisis in agricultural production. Chouhan said the deficit stood at about 12% while addressing reporters after a two-day national conference on preparations for the 2026-27 Rabi season in New Delhi. He said the government had set a foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes for 2026-27.
That is below the 376.56 million tonnes recorded in 2025-26. The target includes 177.72 million tonnes for the Rabi season. The minister said the target reflected a scientific assessment of El Niño conditions.
He added that the Kharif harvest was expected to be better than the previous year, although the acreage of some crops had declined and the overall sown area remained broadly comparable. Chouhan said a drought was generally considered to involve a rainfall shortfall of more than 20% over the relevant period. He therefore did not expect the current deficit to significantly affect production at the national level.
He identified Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan as states facing drought-like conditions. Detailed reports were still awaited, he said, adding that a central team would visit Karnataka on October 3. The minister advised against water-intensive crops in areas with low rainfall, reservoir levels and soil moisture.
He said the government intended to encourage pulses and oilseeds in those regions. Chouhan also said there was no shortage of fertilisers and that supplies would be sufficient for the coming Rabi season. The government would discuss free-trade agreements with states and launch an awareness campaign on export opportunities, product demand and quality requirements.
On edible-oil import duties, he said the government needed to balance farmers’ interests with the need to provide consumers with reasonably priced cooking oil. The supplied report did not give details of specific support measures for affected states.
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