Latvia exit poll puts ruling United List ahead as populists gain

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List took a clear lead in Saturday’s parliamentary election, according to an exit poll by public broadcaster LSM. The centrist, pro-Ukraine party was projected to win 35.6 per cent of the vote. Latvia First was placed second with 11.3 per cent, nearly twice its share in the 2022 election.

Kulbergs said the result was better than he had expected. He ruled out forming a coalition with Latvia First and said he would not cooperate with parties that supported Russia. About 1.5 million people were eligible to vote in the election, which contested all 100 seats in the Saeima.

Fourteen parties took part under Latvia’s proportional representation system. The campaign focused on rising living costs and national security. Latvia borders Russia and Belarus and regards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a direct security threat.

The country is a member of both the European Union and NATO and is a strong supporter of Kyiv. Kulbergs has been Prime Minister only since May, when the previous government collapsed after a dispute involving Ukrainian drones. Although his party led the exit poll, his coalition was expected to emerge weaker as populist parties gained support.

Latvians have also expressed concern about high prices, low wages, a sluggish economy, pressure on the health system, emigration and an ageing population. Populist parties have sought to capitalise on dissatisfaction by advocating a less stringent approach towards Moscow. No party was proposing a major change to Latvia’s EU and NATO alignment.

Four German Eurofighter jets were deployed to protect Latvian airspace during the election. Preliminary official results were expected on Sunday, followed by coalition negotiations.