Strong El Niño raises prospect of Atlantic hurricane-free season

The Atlantic has not produced a hurricane during September, normally the most active month of the season, increasing the possibility of an unprecedented hurricane-free year in the satellite era. The 2026 season was forecast to be quieter than normal because of a strong El Niño. The US National Hurricane Center predicted in May that there would be eight to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.

Four named tropical storms formed in September: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna. Only Edouard did not remain in the open Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center said there was no sign of tropical storm or hurricane activity in the following week.

Colorado State University forecasters said El Niño was likely to disrupt Atlantic wind patterns and produce below-normal activity over the next two weeks. The season ends on 30 November, and activity is normally already declining after its peak. The historical database contains no year without a recorded Atlantic hurricane since 1914, although that predates satellite monitoring and cannot establish with certainty that no storms formed then.

A hurricane-free season in the satellite era would therefore be unprecedented. El Niño warms the tropical Pacific and alters weather patterns around the world. Over the Atlantic, it strengthens upper-level winds and creates wind shear, which can disrupt thunderstorms before they develop into tropical systems.

The eastern North Pacific has experienced the opposite pattern. It has recorded 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes and seven major hurricanes, while accumulated cyclone energy is about two and a half times normal at this point. Forecasts suggest El Niño will continue strengthening and may peak in November or December.